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A few words about the inevitable turn in the development of the IT industry


Due to the fact that a relatively large (and very loud) part of IT lives in the next bubble of dotcoms (now startups), some representatives of this tribe, and especially all Evangelists and even HR, have the illusion of the following property.

A pier, any device, a framework or a way of operation sharply raises success of the enterprise. For example, "we all use the MacBook, and we already have a third round of investment." Or "we decided to open a travel agency, and hire only those programmers who do not get out of travel; we want all employees to share our values, and we already have a turnover of $ 100 million. " Or "as soon as we implemented React + Vue + Angular, our business went uphill, and we bought Google." And so on.

At first glance it seems absurd? - Yes, but we admit: Hype and hubbub are indisputable accompanying elements of the modern IT-world. Any phenomenon that is on the edge of public attention, and IT, of course, from such, can not absorb the characteristic features of the society of its time. In particular, the tendency to prevalence of form over content.

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Quite often a typical wishful thinking takes place. The market is literally going crazy to pour money at least someone who can give a short-term result. Those who are lucky with the gravity of investors can program at least standing on their heads: to achieve a quick result, which must be presented to the speculative market, companies do not necessarily, and sometimes even harmfully, build the right, adjusted business processes. The path to the first success is visible, but the portfolio investor or a large IT giant who will get a shot at a startup for billions will be seriously engaged in the matter. While everyone is waiting for the growth of shares and the next record in the indicator "the amount paid for the company / the number of developers", you can, without hesitation, declare any of your moods. There are no problems in human caprices, but there is only that they are now trying to justify the success of the whole enterprise.

Since the flow of easy money is still very strong, and the brooks diverge in the industry, different scribblers and explanations are hotly flocking. There are whole volumes with pictures on the topic "how to work standing standing," "how to raise the conversion, if your boss is a penguin," "aikido tabulations," and other nonsense. Effective pair programming training, effective autistic programming trainings, Python workshops on new learning technology, training seminars on the new version of Python, etc. That is, people start picking on secondary factors, which are almost always some kind of funny, but insignificant features of an enterprise that has become successful due to, as a rule, the infusion of funds from serious uncles. If still shorter, real market success (and failure) is always a combination of big money, power and managerial ambitions, rather than the result of following some clever strategies, which are usually already written post-factum.

Anyone who works at work for at least 10-15 years will probably remember how he read books about "100 secrets of success", "200 reasons to quit everything and do it" and the like. The only reliable result, to which the following Osterov's advice leads, is that you hang out exactly in the middle. No, there is always an example of the Vasi that fired, but the single emissions of statistics never disproved the general population. So, the theory is not confirmed by practice, and therefore is nothing more than speculation.

Parrying the obvious objections, the author of this pamphlet certainly shares the approach that the programmer somehow learns throughout his career. There are new languages, frameworks, approaches to work. Nobody wants to make tables like 15 years ago, and SPA is easier and more efficient to write on special frameworks, rather than on the old native jQuery. The development of tools of labor is unstoppable, like human progress in general.

However, the essence of the new tool of labor is rarely directly dependent on marketing factors that contribute to its implementation. Between "new, stylish, cool" and "effective, reasonable, decent" there is no direct connection.

We venture to make very clear observations about the secrets of long-term success in the IT industry. Sooner or later, when the bubble is blown off, and the interest of world capital will move into a new industry (space, biology, medicine?), IT is waiting for the inevitable conservative turn. Suddenly it turns out that a lover of travel and coding from under the palms of elementary work 20 hours a week instead of 30-40. Suddenly, it turns out that after programming for 10 years, varicose veins will develop (ask any hairdresser), and sitting on the padded stools, crouching over your favorite macbook, means considerable expenses for the neurologist and chiropractor in the future. People will be surprised to find that Agile is not a panacea for all ills, and generally should be used in a very limited range of tasks, and the newfangled gaming is primarily a way of self-recovery of bored employees without real work. It turns out that the favorite lecturer wearing horn-rimmed spectacles was an ordinary swindler and flushed abroad with the money collected through crowadding.

There will remain those companies that will earn on the product and its maintenance, rather than on the growth of the stock price or even simply on the promise of at least something to do. The unbridled need of the members of the community to disappear at meetings, conferences, hakatons and camps will disappear. The progressive shaft of new silver bullets and "C ++ killers" will drop. Suddenly it turns out that without a person who owns a serious, time-tested development tool, it is difficult to maintain the existing, already quite rich infrastructure of the industry. It turns out that new approaches, solutions developed within the company, as a rule, give a greater real effect than fashionable solutions from the outside. Under the pressure of circumstances (read, in connection with the reduction of budgets for experiments), a person who came up with a solution to a particular problem himself will be valued more than someone who could sell his decision to Google or Facebook, just because it is from Google or Facebook.

Someone will say that it will become boring. Perhaps someone will think that new times are insipid. Where the quality of the company's code does not depend on Friday's pizza and table hockey in the office, just like from the trips of the best employees to the Valley, fun funny guys do nothing special. The new characters of the articles around the IT industry will be businesslike engineers digging each of their topics, and seeking small, but fundamental improvements for all. The society will be all the same, this or that hero of success achieved in 19 years or in 50. Becomes unimportant label on the laptop and the ability to keep yourself at the presentations. Advanced developers will stop calling each other "gurus", and will become just engineers.

Strong IT professionals who really have the experience of solving a wide range of tasks, perhaps, like employees of other industries, will ask their employers the right questions: about processing, the necessary insolation and the organization of proper nutrition in the office. Perhaps the creation of trade unions will be a response to the crowding out of workers to work at home and other reductions in the real benefits that they receive.

The explosion of innovations and innovations will dialectically become its opposite, removing (in the Hegelian sense) all those real contradictions that have accumulated in the industry at the time of rapid growth. Perhaps the time will come to resolve long-overdue issues, because the next round of IT technology development will really affect everyone: the Internet of things or cyber terrorism will not leave a choice in the matter of "making quickly in the hope of future improvements" or "doing right away well ".
KlauS 21 october 2017, 16:54
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